Photo Credit: James Grenz
Hilo
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 57 to 62 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 74 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers late in the evening. Lows 71 to 77 near the shore to 50 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 54 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 88. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 54 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 88. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 71 to 77 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 57 to 62 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 74 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89 near the shore to 66 to 74 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers late in the evening. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to 50 to 57 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89 near the shore to 66 to 74 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A weak surface ridge north of the area will maintain light east to southeast background winds to begin the week. The ridge and trade winds will gradually strengthen this week. Clouds and showers will increase across leeward areas and island interiors through Tuesday, before strengthening trades redirect showers across windward and mauka areas into the weekend.
Discussion
Radar trends this morning show scattered showers drifting across the state, in advance of drier air trying to move eastward into the region. Some of the most persistent showers this morning remain over the western end of the state, where slightly deeper moisture and better instability linger. Overall, rainfall intensity and areal coverage of showers should be more limited today when compared to Sunday, as drier and more stable air slowly move into the region.
The first part of this week will see a slow transition from light east-southeast trades and diurnal sea and land breeze circulations, towards strengthening trades. An area of high pressure well northeast of the state and surface boundary dropping slowly southward to within about 500 miles north-northeast of this islands, will maintain a weak pressure gradient and light background trade wind flow across the islands through the first half of the week. This will allow for the continued development of afternoon and early evening sea breeze showers across leeward areas and island interiors through Tuesday. The airmass is forecast to be drier to begin the work week across much of the central and eastern islands, when compared to Sunday. Moisture depths are forecast to drop from between 9k-11k feet as seen on Sunday, to below 8k feet today through Tuesday. Additionally, precipitable water values are also forecast to drop, from the values around 1.60 inches on Sunday, to around 1.30 inches or less by this afternoon. This drier airmass potential for today, matches well with the latest satellite estimates showing layer blended precipitable water values around 1.30 inches or less, already streaming toward the region from the east. This drier air should limit the areal coverage of showers through Tuesday, though expect scattered showers to once again develop across leeward areas and island interiors.
However, the surface boundary dropping southward toward the state, will increase moisture and enhance rainfall chances over the westerns islands into Wednesday. The southward sagging frontal boundary is forecast to erode by midweek, while the ridge north of the state begins to firmly reestablish itself. This pattern will begin to increase the easterly trades on Wednesday, before further strengthening to locally breezy by the weekend. There remains some model differences with respect to the exact timing of when trades finally strengthen across the islands. Though expect the chances for sea breeze showers will diminish across leeward areas Tuesday, with showers becoming redirected to mainly windward areas in a typical trade wind weather pattern through the weekend.
Aviation
Winds will be light to moderate through tonight, tending east to east-southeast during the period, as a ridge persists a couple hundred miles north of the islands. Under this regime, nighttime land breezes and daytime sea breezes will develop. Cloudiness has been gradually dissipating overnight and will again build up over the isles during late morning and the afternoon, with accompanying showers and MVFR conditions expected in various locales with the lower clouds and precipitation.
No AIRMETs are in effect.
Marine
Expect light to moderate trade winds through the first half of this week as a low far to our northwest moves farther away and high pressure builds to our north. Wind speeds may approach Small Craft Advisory threshold during the second half of the week.
South swell and surf will continue to decrease through today, leaving only background swell by the middle of the week. Minimal energy is expected from the south during the second half of the week. A small north-northwest swell is forecast to arrive Wednesday followed by a slightly bigger pulse over the weekend. Light trade winds will keep small surf in the forecast along east facing shores through at least Wednesday with a slight increase towards the end of the week as the trades strengthen.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov