Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 59 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 65 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 65 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 59 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90 near the shore to 68 to 75 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to 53 to 59 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 90 near the shore to 66 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle southeast flow will continue through the weekend with humid weather and afternoon clouds and showers over interior and leeward areas. A light to moderate trade wind pattern will return around Monday and should become breezy during the second half of next week.

Discussion

High pressure far northeast and low pressure far northwest of the state is producing gentle east to southeast flow across the state this morning. The Molokai plume that developed last evening held on through most of the night with continuous showers from east Oahu and along the Koolau range. The Manoa Lyon Arboretum rain gauge located deep in the Manoa Valley recorded 2.74 inches of rain during the past 12 hours. The plume has finally dissipated this morning, but a few isolated showers and clouds still linger across Oahu this morning.
For today, we will continue to see this hybrid pattern with light east to southeast winds across the state. Daytime sea breezes will cause afternoon clouds and showers across leeward and interior areas through the evening. Any showers that do develop will be slow moving and will be capable of producing some locally heavy rain. With the southeast flow continuing through the weekend, we could very well see the Molokai and Lanai plumes once again over Oahu tonight with some scattered showers across leeward and mountain areas. Humidities will continue to remain high through the weekend with dewpoints around 70 degrees, so temperatures will feel warmer than normal.
Early next week, a weak surface ridge is expected to develop about 150 to 200 miles N of the islands, so we should see a light to moderate trade wind pattern develop. Most showers should mainly be focused over windward areas, but due to the trades being on the lighter side, some brief showers will still be possible over leeward areas due to localized sea breeze development. By the second half of next week, global models are in fairly good agreement with a breezy trade wind pattern across the state.

Aviation

Showers increased in coverage over southern and southeastern portions of Oahu for several hours courtesy of leeward convergence downstream of Molokai. These showers are now quickly diminishing and may bring a brief period of light rain to interior and leeward portions of Oahu early this morning before dissipating altogether. Elsewhere, land breezes are favoring dry conditions and prevailing VFR. Emerging sea breezes this morning into this afternoon will once again favor clouds and showers over island interiors during the peak heating period. VFR is expected to prevail but isolated MVFR will be possible with any heavier showers.
No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

A low pressure system far northwest of the islands will continue to weaken the high pressure ridge just north of the state. Expect light to moderate breezes from the east to southeast direction through Sunday. A cold front then stalls north of the region by Tuesday keeping light to fresh easterly breezes in the forecast through the first half of next week. Wind speeds may approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds by the end of next week.
South swell energy will remain elevated through Sunday as another long period swell passes through the region. Once this swell decreases by Sunday night, only background south swell energy will prevail through the first half of next week.
A small north-northwest swell will keep north shore surf elevated today, before fading into almost flat levels on Monday. In the longer term, north shore surf could get another slight boost as a small north-northwest swell arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday.
West facing shores will see a small increase in surf from this long- period south swell and, to a lesser extent, the north-northwest swell. Light trade winds will keep small surf in the forecast along east facing shores through at least next Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov